Capitol Inside 10/29/2008

Some Republicans and Democrats are beginning to speculate that a wide open race for Texas House speaker could soon be under way if the GOP loses two or more seats in the general election on Tuesday but still controls the lower chamber next year.

The biggest question seems to be whether Speaker Tom Craddick would still be a candidate for the leadership post that he's held for almost six years if Democrats pick up two or more seats in next week's vote but fall short in their quest to regain a majority. Democrats will seize control of the lower chamber with a net gain of five or more seats in Tuesday's election.

One school of thought under such a scenario centers on speculation that Republicans who've been Craddick allies might attempt to find a consensus on a replacement from within their own ranks if it appears to them that the current House leader doesn't have enough support to overcome challenge from one of the GOP members who tried to oust him during the session last year.

But some Republicans and Democrats alike contend that Craddick is far too competitive to consider stepping out of the way on his own if the GOP has a majority in the lower chamber in 2009 no matter how small the gap between the two parties might be then. In such an event, the battle for speaker could boil down to a fight between Craddick and one of the Republicans who filed to run for the House's top leadership post during an attempted coup in the west wing of the Capitol in the closing days of the session last year.

Eastland State Rep. Jim Keffer - a former Craddick loyalist who bolted from the speaker's team and launched his own campaign for the post in 2007 - said Wednesday that he's convinced that a majority of House members want to replace the chamber's current leader no matter what happens at the polls next week.

Keffer predicted that a new consensus choice for House speaker will emerge within 24 hours after the polls close on Tuesday. Keffer said he's "100 percent sure" that the House will elect a new speaker when it convenes in January.

"Regardless of how the Republican and Democrat numbers change in the Texas House, there is a majority desire for a new speaker," Keffer declared.

If Craddick decided to step aside in the event that the GOP loses seats but retain a narrow majority, there's speculation that his supporters might look for a successor in a possible pool that could conceivably include Republican State Reps. Dan Branch of Dallas, Warren Chisum of Pampa, Dan Gattis of Georgetown and Phil King of Weatherford.

But some Republicans insist that such a scenario wouldn't come to pass with Craddick's blessings if Democrats pick up seats but fail to take the House back at the ballot box next week. And none of the Republicans who've been loyal to Craddick have publicly expressed any desire to challenge him when the House elects its speaker on opening day of the regular session in less than three months.

While Chisum is the only lawmaker in the aforementioned group of Republicans with no Democratic opponent in the general election, all of the others are expect to win re-election in battles at the polls with Democrats.

In addition to Keffer, several Republicans who'll be back for new terms in 2009 including State Reps. Jim Pitts of Waxahachie, Brian McCall of Plano and Delwin Jones of Lubbock opposed Craddick during last year's mutiny and had lined up to run against him if they'd been able to force an election for speaker before the session ended. Craddick survived a challenge from Pitts in the speaker's election at the start of the session in 2007 when he mustered enough support from Democrats to overcome opposition to his re-election within GOP ranks.

The debate about a speaker's race will be complicated even further if Democrats pick up four House seats in next week's election and both parties each have 75 state representatives as a result when the session gets under way in 2009. Republicans and Democrats seem to agree that Craddick would find it hard to hang on to the leadership post if that happens.

In the event that Democrats reclaim the majority in the lower chamber at the polls on Tuesday, there's speculation that the next speaker could be either State Rep. Allan Ritter of Nederland or State Rep. Craig Eiland of Galveston. One line of reasoning speculates that Ritter will have the best chance to be speaker if Democrats hold between 75 and 77 seats in the House next year. According to that school of thought, Eiland could emerge as the frontrunner in a speaker's race if Democrats have 78 House seats or more when the session convenes in January.

State Rep. Pete Gallego's name has also emerged in speculation on who might be the next speaker if Democrats win the majority. Gallego, an Alpine attorney, has been one of the Democrats' top House leaders along with State Reps. Jim Dunnam of Waco and Garnet Coleman of Houston since the GOP took control of the chamber in 2003.

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Election Possibilities Fuel Speculation on Resurrected House Speaker's Race

October 29, 2008 By Mike Hailey Capitol Inside Editor Some Republicans and Democrats are beginning to speculate that a wide open race for Texas House speaker could soon be under way if the GOP loses two or more seats in the general election on Tuesday but still controls the lower chamber next year. The biggest question seems to be whether Speaker Tom Craddick would still be a candidate for the leadership post that he's held for almost six years if Democrats pick up two or more seats in next week's vote but fall short in their quest to regain a majority. Democrats will seize control of the lower chamber with a net gain of five or more seats in Tuesday's election. One school of thought under such a scenario centers on speculation that Republicans who've been Craddick allies might attempt to find a consensus on a replacement from within their own ranks if it appears to them that the current House leader doesn't have enough support to overcome challenge from one of the GOP members who tried to oust him during the session last year. But some Republicans and Democrats alike contend that Craddick is far too competitive to consider stepping out of the way on his own if the GOP has a majority in the lower chamber in 2009 no matter how small the gap between the two parties might be then. In such an event, the battle for speaker could boil down to a fight between Craddick and one of the Republicans who filed to run for the House's top leadership post during an attempted coup in the west wing of the Capitol in the closing days of the session last year. Eastland State Rep. Jim Keffer - a former Craddick loyalist who bolted from the speaker's team and launched his own campaign for the post in 2007 - said Wednesday that he's convinced that a majority of House members want to replace the chamber's current leader no matter what happens at the polls next week. Keffer predicted that a new consensus choice for House speaker will emerge within 24 hours after the polls close on Tuesday. Keffer said he's "100 percent sure" that the House will elect a new speaker when it convenes in January. "Regardless of how the Republican and Democrat numbers change in the Texas House, there is a majority desire for a new speaker," Keffer declared. If Craddick decided to step aside in the event that the GOP loses seats but retain a narrow majority, there's speculation that his supporters might look for a successor in a possible pool that could conceivably include Republican State Reps. Dan Branch of Dallas, Warren Chisum of Pampa, Dan Gattis of Georgetown and Phil King of Weatherford. But some Republicans insist that such a scenario wouldn't come to pass with Craddick's blessings if Democrats pick up seats but fail to take the House back at the ballot box next week. And none of the Republicans who've been loyal to Craddick have publicly expressed any desire to challenge him when the House elects its speaker on opening day of the regular session in less than three months. While Chisum is the only lawmaker in the aforementioned group of Republicans with no Democratic opponent in the general election, all of the others are expect to win re-election in battles at the polls with Democrats. In addition to Keffer, several Republicans who'll be back for new terms in 2009 including State Reps. Jim Pitts of Waxahachie, Brian McCall of Plano and Delwin Jones of Lubbock opposed Craddick during last year's mutiny and had lined up to run against him if they'd been able to force an election for speaker before the session ended. Craddick survived a challenge from Pitts in the speaker's election at the start of the session in 2007 when he mustered enough support from Democrats to overcome opposition to his re-election within GOP ranks. The debate about a speaker's race will be complicated even further if Democrats pick up four House seats in next week's election and both parties each have 75 state representatives as a result when the session gets under way in 2009. Republicans and Democrats seem to agree that Craddick would find it hard to hang on to the leadership post if that happens. In the event that Democrats reclaim the majority in the lower chamber at the polls on Tuesday, there's speculation that the next speaker could be either State Rep. Allan Ritter of Nederland or State Rep. Craig Eiland of Galveston. One line of reasoning speculates that Ritter will have the best chance to be speaker if Democrats hold between 75 and 77 seats in the House next year. According to that school of thought, Eiland could emerge as the frontrunner in a speaker's race if Democrats have 78 House seats or more when the session convenes in January. State Rep. Pete Gallego's name has also emerged in speculation on who might be the next speaker if Democrats win the majority. Gallego, an Alpine attorney, has been one of the Democrats' top House leaders along with State Reps. Jim Dunnam of Waco and Garnet Coleman of Houston since the GOP took control of the chamber in 2003.

Election Possibilities Fuel Speculation on Resurrected House Speaker's Race