Domino Theory

Statewide Campaign Lineups for 2010 Will Fall into Place Soon Once Questions Surrounding KBH and Dewhurst Have Answers

June 4, 2009

By Mike Hailey
Capitol Inside Editor

As Republicans and Democrats wonder whether U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison will pull the trigger on a gubernatorial bid, the list of Texas politicians with higher ambitions is swelling rapidly with the lineups for statewide races in 2010 getting ready to start taking shape now that the Legislature's regular session has ended and the Fourth of July is just one month away.

With Hutchison apparently set on giving up her current post when her term ends if not sooner, the most critical question at this point may be more about whether Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst will enter the race to replace her than it is whether she will actually follow through with her plans to challenge Governor Rick Perry's re-election bid in the GOP primary next year.

As long as Hutchison doesn't announce anytime soon that she will seek re-election in 2012 - and no one in Austin or Washington expects that to happen regardless of her gubernatorial intentions - then Dewhurst is the key to a potential domino effect on the Republican side of the ledger depending on whether he jumps in the U.S. Senate battle or decides to run for a third term in the post he holds now.

The prevailing sentiment in political circles has been that Dewhurst will throw his name in the ring of U.S. Senate contenders - despite a flurry of speculation on the final night of the regular session earlier this week that he might be seriously considering a re-election race instead.

On one side of the coin, the political prognosticators have theorized that Dewhurst will dive into the U.S. Senate race because he would be the apparent frontrunner at the outset if he does. On the other hand, there's speculation that Dewhurst may be having second thoughts about being a small fish in a big pond especially with Democrats in firm command in the U.S. Senate when he has a job now that's arguably more powerful for all practical purposes.

While Dewhurst would appear to have the inside track ahead of four Republicans who already are running for the U.S. Senate or exploring bids, Democratic contenders John Sharp and Bill White both see a special election to replace Hutchison as a better opportunity for a Democrat to break the GOP's monopoly on statewide offices than a traditional general election would present. Dewhurst - by contrast - would appear to be unbeatable at this point in a bid for re-election as the state Senate president.

Whatever that verdict might be, Dewhurst and other Republicans who've been deferring to Hutchison's timetable for announcing her plans probably are getting restless and thinking they can't afford to wait much longer before making their own intentions official and moving full-steam ahead and raising money for campaigns of higher offices or staying put in the safer positions they have now.

If Dewhurst runs for the U.S. Senate as the oddsmakers predict, then Republican Attorney General Greg Abbott appears poised to become a candidate for lieutenant governor in a battle he likely will be favored to win in the early stages despite the potential for formidable competition from Democrats.

The Democrat whose name has been floated the most in the context of a possible race for lieutenant governor is State Senator Kirk Watson, a former Austin mayor who will otherwise be up for re-election in 2010 at the end of his first term in the upper chamber. Democratic State Senator Leticia Van de Putte of San Antonio has been mentioned prominently during the past several months as a potential contender for U.S. Senate, governor or another higher post such as the job that Dewhurst has held for the past six years.

The list of Democrats who've been eyeing possible statewide races next year or mentioned recently for them include State Senators Juan "Chuy" Hinojosa of McAllen and Royce West of Dallas along, State Rep. Pete Gallego of Alpine and former Texas Senate member John Montford.

Former San Antonio Mayor Phil Hardberger, who would have been a strong favorite for re-election this spring if he hadn't been term limited, and Montford would most likely have their sights set high on the ballot for a job such as governor if they decided to launch statewide campaigns. A current local leader who's a Republican, Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert, has expressed interest in a possible bid for one of the statewide posts high on the ticket as well at some point

Fort Worth attorney Tom Schieffer, a former Texas House member who served as ambassador to Japan and Austria under President George W. Bush, and folksy entertainer Kinky Friedman are both exploring campaigns for governor in 2010 as Democrats. Schieffer and Friedman both expect to run for the job that Perry has held for more than eight years. Friedman placed fourth in the governor's race in 2006 with more than 12 percent of the vote as an independent candidate that year.

A decision by Abbott to seek a promotion to lieutenant governor would trigger a wide-open scramble for the attorney general job that he's held since 2003. State Rep. Dan Branch of Dallas and Texas Supreme Court Justice Dale Wainwright are both considered possible candidates for attorney general on the GOP side if Abbott doesn't seek re-election next year. Austin lawyer Ted Cruz, who served as solicitor general for five years under Abbott in the AG's office, already has a campaign under way in hopes of replacing his former boss as attorney general.

Houston attorney Barbara Radnofsky, a Democrat who lost to Hutchison in the U.S. Senate race in 2006 with 36 percent of the statewide vote, has indicated that she plans to run for attorney general next year.

Texas Railroad Commission Chairman Michael Williams, who's currently contending for the expected opening in the U.S. Senate, has also been mentioned in recent years as a possible candidate for Republican attorney general if and when Abbott decides to pursue another statewide office. Railroad Commissioner Elizabeth Ames Jones, State Senator Florence Shapiro of Plano and former Secretary of State Roger Williams

Chris Nelson, a NASA engineer and project manager, is running for the U.S. Senate seat from Texas as an independent in 2010.

Several Republican statewide officials including Comptroller Susan Combs, Land Commissioner Jerry Patterson and Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples, plan to seek re-election to their current posts in 2010 barring unforeseen developments. While Democrats are promising to field candidates for all of those seats, no specific challenger names have emerged at this point of the competition.

Democrats, who've haven't held a statewide office in more than 10 years, have a promising bench of potential statewide contenders at some point in the future with legislators such as State Reps. Rafael Anchia of Dallas, Veronica Gonzales of McAllen, David Leibowitz of San Antonio and Patrick Rose of Dripping Springs in the wings. Whether any of those will be willing to gamble their current posts on statewide races that might be considered longshots at this point remains to be seen.

Democrat Ron Kirk, a former Dallas mayor who ran for the U.S. Senate in 2002, might have been high on the speculation list for statewide campaigns had he not just signed on a few months ago as President Barack Obama's chief trade representative.

Perry and Hutchison - if they're both candidates in the battle for governor as expected next year - could find opposition as well from State Rep. Leo Berman of Tyler - who's indicated that he will launch an exploratory effort for a possible gubernatorial bid to spotlight the failure of the Legislature and state leadership to take action to combat illegal immigration.

While the filing deadline for the 2010 campaigns won't roll around until early January, the competition for statewide posts should be under way in earnest by the time the fallout has settled for the fireworks on July 4.

Mike Hailey's column appears regularly in Capitol Inside